1. Shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region : Stakes for Asia-Pacific countries -- 2, Evolution of the Asia-Pacific economic order during the 1980s: Japan's emergence as the "core economy" of the Asia-Pacific region ; Continued economic importance of the United States -- Growing role of the Asian NIEs ; The overseas Chinese connection -- 3. Structural patterns in Japan's economic role in Asia : "Flying geese" and the new division of labour ; Bilateral and sub-regional relationships ; Role of Japan's aid programmes ; ASEAN focus of Japanese investment in Aisa ; Balance sheet on Japan's economic role. -- 4. Japan's growing political and diplomatic roles : Cautious but steady growth of Japanese activism ; Evolution of Japan's post-war political-diplomatic role ; Emerging regional activism ; Continuing avoidance of system-wide responsibility -- 5. Problems and prospects for Japan's influence in Asia : Uncertainty about Japan's goals and ability to lead ; Limitations imposed by Japan's political system, culture and values ; Limitations of aid diplomacy ; Conflicting objectives of economic co-operation ; Negative feelings towards Japan. -- 6. Prospects of a larger Japanese military role : New dirctions in defence policy ; Budget and forces trends ; Technological dimension of Japan's defence capabilities ; Asian security initiatives ; Future posture uncertain -- 7. Alternative scenarios for the future : Assuptions and variables ; Conceptual framework ; Scenario 1: Constructive globalization of Japan ; Scenario 2: Heightened economic rivalry in Asia ; Scenario 3. Japan-dominated Asia-Pacific region. -- 8. Implications for the future of the Asia-Pacific region : Evolving dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region -- Implications for U.S. policy ; Implications for Asia-Pacific nations ; Conclusions -- Appendices: App.A. A cautionary note on comparisons of foreign direct investment -- App.B: Japanese trade with Asia-Pacific countries, 1986-90 -- App.C: U.S. trade with Asia-Pacific countries, 1986-90
