Description |
1 online resource (ix, 113 pages) : color illustrations |
Series |
Monograph series / Strategic Studies Institute |
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Monograph series / Strategic Studies Institute
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Contents |
Foreword. -- Executive summary. -- Introduction. -- Chapter 1 - Deterring China: 1949 to present. -- Chapter 2 - Deterrents and decay: the trend toward Taiwanese vulnerability. -- Chapter 3 - Why China might no longer defer an invations of Taiwan: four key variables. -- The one china formula(s). -- The Chinese Communist Party's emerging legitimacy problem. -- The end of the silicon shield. -- China's closing window of opportunity. -- Chapter 4 - What can be done?: the gravity of the situation and the next deterrents. -- Are we right? -- If we are right: implications for deterrence. -- Chapter 5 - Conclusion. -- Selected bibliography. -- About the authors |
Summary |
In this monograph, Jared McKinney and Peter Harris assess the chances of a Chinese attack on Taiwan happening in the coming decade. They offer a stark assessment: Almost all the deterrents that once dissuaded Beijing from attempting an invasion of Taiwan have decayed with the passage of time. Meanwhile, China’s leaders now expect to derive fewer benefits from exercising restraint than they did in the past—the result of developments within China, shifts in Taiwanese politics, and the deterioration of Sino-American relations. Their analysis points to a grim conclusion: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan should be considered likely in the next 10 years. If interlocking deterrents can be developed for the short, medium, and long terms, and peace reinvigorated, war may yet be avoided |
Notes |
"January 2024"--Title page |
Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (page 109) |
Notes |
Description based on online resource; title from PDF cover page (Army War College, viewed January 15, 2024) |
Subject |
Deterrence (Strategy) -- Evaluation
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War -- Prevention
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Crisis management.
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National security -- Taiwan
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International relations.
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international relations.
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Taiwan -- International status
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Form |
Electronic book
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Author |
Harris, Peter, author
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Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute.
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ISBN |
1584878517 |
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9781584878513 |
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