1 online resource (VII, 23 pages) : color map, color photographs
Contents
Executive summary. -- 1. Conflict at a crossroads. -- 2. Four scenarios for the trajectory of violence in Cabo Delgado. -- Scenario one: militants and a hostile government drive away civilians. -- Scenario two: The government celebrates a false victory. -- Scenario three: Maputo's ill-timed strategic shift empowers the insurgency. -- Scenario four: Mindful government approach brings improved stability. -- 3. Policy options. -- Government of Mozambique. -- The region. -- The United States and international partners. -- The private sector
Summary
The government of Mozambique has a rapidly shrinking window within which to implement a more comprehensive and effective strategy to weaken the Ahlu Sunna wa Jama (ASWJ) insurgents in Cabo Delgado and prevent the group from becoming an entrenched, long-term security problem. This report lays out potential scenarios for the trajectory of violence in Cabo Delgado during the next 18 months based on two primary drivers: insurgency capacity and government strategies to address the violence
