| Description |
1 online resource (33 pages) : color charts |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/11/291 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/11/291.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Theoretical Model; A. Long Run Output Equation; Figures; 1. External Income and Remittances to GDP Ratios; 2. External Income and Price of Oil, in Log Level; Tables; 1. Cointegration Rank Test Statistics for the VAR(2) Model with External Income and Price of Oil; 3. Oil Export Revenues to Income Ratios for Major Oil Exporters; B. Other Long Run Relations; C. Application to Other Countries; III. Data; A. Construction of Macro Variables; 4. External Income to GDP Ratios; B. Macroeconomic Trends in Jordan 1979-2009 |
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IV. A VARX* Error Correction Model for Jordan5. Macroeconomic Variables for Jordan, in Log Level; V. Long-Run Estimates and Tests; A. Unit Root Test Results; B. Order Selection and Deterministic Components; 2. Unit Root Test Statistics (based on AIC Order Selection); C. Estimation and Testing of the Long-Run Relations; 3. Lag Order Selection Criteria; 4. Cointegration Rank Test Statistics for the VARX*(2,2) Model; Testing Long-Run Theory Restrictions; Using External Income as Opposed to Oil Prices; 5. Cointegration Rank Test Statistics for the VARX*(2,2) Model; VI. Short-Run Dynamics |
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A. Persistence ProfilesB. Generalized Impulse Responses (GIRFs); 6. The Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations (with 95 Percent Bootstrapped Confidence Bounds); 7. Generalized Impulse Responses of a Positive Unit Shock to the Price of Oil (with 95 Percent Bootstrapped Confidence Bounds); 8. Generalized Impulse Responses of a Positive Unit Shock to Foreign Output (with 95 Percent Bootstrapped Confidence Bounds); 9. Generalized Impulse Responses of a Positive Unit Shock to Foreign Inflation (with 95 Percent Bootstrapped Confidence Bounds) |
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C. Error-Correction Equations6. Reduced-form Error Correction Equations of the VECX*; 10. Actual, Fitted, and Residuals for the Core Equations; VII. Concluding Remarks; References |
| Summary |
"This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income--the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfer--from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income"--Page [1] |
| Notes |
At head of title: Middle East and Central Asia Department |
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Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed December 12, 2011) |
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"December 2011." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 32-33) |
| Subject |
Petroleum products -- Prices -- Jordan -- Econometric models
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Exports -- Jordan -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Jordan -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Econometric models
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Exports -- Econometric models
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Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models
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Jordan
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Raissi, Mehdi, author.
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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
1283556685 |
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9781283556682 |
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9781463954734 |
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1463954735 |
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9781463927257 |
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1463927258 |
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