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Title Ukraine : First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and a Request for Rephasing of the Arrangement: Staff Statement: Press Release: and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Published Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014
©2014

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Description 1 online resource (111 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF Country Reports ; no. 14/263
IMF country report ; no. 14/263.
Contents Cover; CONTENTS; CONTEXT; RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS; BOXES; 1. The Economic Impact of the Conflict in the East; MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK AND RISKS; MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY; A. Recent Developments; B. Policy Discussions; FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICY ; A. Recent Financial Developments; B. Policy Discussions; FISCAL POLICY ; A. Recent Developments ; B. Policy Discussions; ENERGY POLICY; A. Recent Developments; B. Policy Discussions; GOVERNANCE AND TRANSPARENCY; A. Background; B. Policy Discussions; PROGRAM FINANCING AND MODALITIES; RISKS TO THE PROGRAM; 2. Illustrative Adverse Scenario
5. Program Scenario -- Monetary Accounts, 2013-166. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009-14; 7. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2013-19; 8. Access and Phasing Under the Stand-By Arrangement ; ANNEX; Public Debt Sustainability Analysis; APPENDIX; Letter of Intent; ATTACHMENTS; I. Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies; II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding
STAFF APPRAISAL FIGURES; 1. Real Sector Indicators, 2011-14; 2. Inflation, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Developments, 2011-14; 3. External Sector Developments, 2011-14; 4. Debt and Rollover of Debt, 2011-16 ; 5. Banking Sector Deposits and Credit, 2014; 6. Financial Sector Indicators, 2011-14 ; TABLES; 1. Program Scenario -- Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2013-16; 2. Program Scenario -- General Government Finances, 2014-16; 3. Program Scenario -- Balance of Payments, 2013-16; 4. Program Scenario -- Gross External Financing Requirements, 2013-16
Summary The first review discussions took place in a context of heightened geopolitical tensions and deepening economic crisis. Intensification of the conflict in the East and escalation of the gas dispute with Gazprom, two of the key risks identified at the time of the program request, have materialized. These developments have affected confidence, balance of payment flows, economic activity, and budget execution. The banking sector has had to cope with larger-than-anticipated deposit outflows, and the exchange rate has depreciated more than expected at the time of the program request. The authorities have implemented policies broadly as agreed, but significant pressures have emerged. All but one performance criteria for end-May were met and all structural benchmarks have been implemented, albeit some with a delay. However, the deterioration in the economic outlook, fiscal and quasi-fiscal pressures, and heightened balance of payment difficulties are putting the initial program targets in jeopardy. Two end-July PCs are estimated to have been missed; and the end-2014 targets are out of reach. All continuous PCs were met. Discussions focused on the appropriate policy response to these short-term pressures and on reforms to support sustained growth. There was agreement that the policy effort should focus on compensatory measures to meet key program objectives, while allowing some temporary deviations from the initial targets. In particular, the NBU will limit the decline in reserves through market purchases; the government will take additional fiscal measures to keep public finances sustainable; and Naftogaz will strengthen current and past gas bills collection. Discussions also focused on reforms aimed at modernizing the monetary policy framework, preserving financial stability, addressing governance issues and improving the business climate. Nonetheless, risks loom large. The program hinges crucially on the assumption that the conflict will begin to subside in the coming months. Should active fighting continue well beyond that, the small buffers under the revised baseline would be quickly exhausted, requiring a new strategy, including additional external financing. A further heightening of geopolitical tensions could also have significant economic consequences. Domestically, policymaking may become more difficult in case of early elections. Strong policy performance and adherence to the planned reforms is therefore critical. Staff supports the authorities' request for completion of the first review and the waivers for nonobservance and applicability of performance criteria. The purchase released upon completion of the review would be in the amount of SDR 0.914 billion, of which SDR 0.650 billion will be used to finance the budget deficit
Notes "August 18, 2014"--Page 2 of pdf
"September 2014."
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF Web site, viewed September 5, 2014)
Subject International Monetary Fund -- Ukraine
SUBJECT International Monetary Fund fast
Subject Fiscal policy -- Ukraine
Monetary policy -- Ukraine
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Finance.
Economic history
Economic policy
Fiscal policy
Monetary policy
SUBJECT Ukraine -- Economic conditions. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139339
Ukraine -- Economic policy. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh87000664
Ukraine -- Politics and government -- Economic aspects
Subject Ukraine
Form Electronic book
Author International Monetary Fund, issuing body.
ISBN 1498319734
9781498319737
Other Titles Ukraine, first review under the stand-by arrangement