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E-book
Author Silvia, John

Title Economic and business forecasting : analyzing and interpreting econometric results / John Silvia, Azhar Iqbal, Kaylyn Swankoski, Sarah Watt, Sam Bullard
Published Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2014]
©2014

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Description 1 online resource
Series Wiley & SAS business series
Contents Machine generated contents note: Effective Decision Making: Characterize the Data -- Growth: How Is the Economy Doing Overall? -- Personal Consumption -- Gross Private Domestic Investment -- Government Purchases -- Net Exports of Goods and Services -- Real Final Sales and Gross Domestic Purchases -- Labor Market: Always a Core Issue -- Establishment Survey -- Data Revision: A Special Consideration -- Household Survey -- Marrying the Labor Market Indicators Together -- Jobless Claims -- Inflation -- Consumer Price Index: A Society's Inflation Benchmark -- Producer Price Index -- Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator: The Inflation Benchmark for Monetary Policy -- Interest Rates: Price of Credit -- Dollar and Exchange Rates: The United States in a Global Economy -- Corporate Profits -- Summary -- Profitability Ratios -- Summary -- Why Characterize a Time Series? -- How to Characterize a Time Series -- Application: Judging Economic Volatility -- Summary -- Important Test Statistics in Identifying Statistically Significant Relationships -- Simple Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- Advanced Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- Summary -- Additional Reading -- Tips for SAS Users -- DATA Step -- PROC Step -- Summary -- Testing a Unit Root in a Time Series: A Case Study of the U.S. CPI -- Identifying a Structural Change in a Time Series -- Application of the HP Filter -- Application: Benchmarking the Housing Bust, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers -- Summary -- Useful Tips for an Applied Time Series Analysis -- Converting a Dataset from One Frequency to Another -- Application: Did the Great Recession Alter Credit Benchmarks? -- Summary -- Commandment 1: Know What You Are Forecasting -- Commandment 2: Understand the Purpose of Forecasting -- Commandment 3: Acknowledge the Cost of the Forecast Error -- Commandment 4: Rationalize the Forecast Horizon -- Commandment 5: Understand the Choice of Variables -- Commandment 6: Rationalize the Forecasting Model Used -- Commandment 7: Know How to Present the Results -- Commandment 8: Know How to Decipher the Forecast Results -- Commandment 9: Understand the Importance of Recursive Methods -- Commandment 10: Understand Forecasting Models Evolve over Time -- Summary -- Unconditional (Atheoretical) Approach -- Conditional (Theoretical) Approach -- Recession Forecast Using a Probit Model -- Summary -- Importance of the Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting -- Individual Forecast versus Consensus Forecast: Is There an Advantage? -- Econometrics of Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Approach -- Forecasting in Real Time: Issues Related to the Data and the Model Selection -- Case Study: WFC versus Bloomberg -- Summary -- Appendix 11A: List of Variables -- Unconditional Long-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Model -- BVAR Model with Housing Starts -- Model without Oil Price Shock -- Model with Oil Price Shock -- Summary -- Risks to Short-Term Forecasting: There Is No Magic Bullet -- Risks of Long-Term Forecasting: Black Swan versus a Group of Black Swans -- Model-Based Forecasting and the Great Recession/Financial Crisis: Worst-Case Scenario versus Panic -- Summary -- Benchmarking Economic Growth -- Industrial Production: Another Case of Stationary Behavior -- Employment: Jobs in the Twenty-First Century -- Inflation -- Interest Rates -- Imbalances between Bond Yields and Equity Earnings -- Note of Caution on Patterns of Interest Rates -- Business Credit: Patterns Reminiscent of Cyclical Recovery -- Profits -- Financial Market Volatility: Assessing Risk -- Dollar -- Economic Policy: Impact of Fiscal Policy and the Evolution of the U.S. Economy -- Long-Term Deficit Bias and Its Economic Implications -- Summary
Summary Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting. Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template ..
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index
Notes Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher
Subject Economic forecasting.
Business forecasting
Decision making.
Econometrics.
Decision Making
decision making.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Economics -- General.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Reference.
Business forecasting
Decision making
Econometrics
Economic forecasting
Form Electronic book
LC no. 2013041640
ISBN 9781118569801
1118569806
9781118569542
1118569547