| Description |
1 online resource |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers, 2227-8885 ; No. 14/24 |
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IMF working paper ; no. 14/24.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Estimating Okun's Law with Forecasts; A. Structure of Forecast Data; B. Estimating Okun's Law; III. Okun's Law: Data vs. Forecasts; Tables; 1. Okun's Coefficients Comparison: Data vs. Forecasts; Figures; 1. Okun's Coefficients Comparison: Actual vs. Forecast Data; IV. Evidence from Forecast Revisions; 2. Unemployment Rate and GDP Growth Forecast Revisions; 2. Unemployment Rate and GDP Growth Forecast Revisions; V. Conclusions; Appendix; Appendix Tables; 3. Okun's Law: Current Year Forecasts; 4: Okun's Law: Year-Ahead Forecasts; Appendix Figures |
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3. Distributions of Actual and Forecasted Unemployment Rate and GDP Growth: Consensus 1989-20124. Unemployment Rate and GDP Growth Forecast Errors: Consensus 1989-2012; References |
| Summary |
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient?the responsiveness of unemployment to growth?from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989 |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Labor laws and legislation.
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Labor market.
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Unemployment.
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Employment (Economic theory)
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employing.
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Labor laws and legislation
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Labor market
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Unemployment
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Tovar Jalles, João, author.
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Loungani, Prakash, author
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International Monetary Fund, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
130647762X |
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9781306477628 |
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9781475584684 |
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1475584687 |
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