Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Characterizing the Commodity Boom-and its Aftermath-in LAC; A.A Country-specific Net Commodity Price Index (NCPI); B. The Mid-2000s Commodity Boom; C. Is the Commodity Boom Over for LAC Countries?; III. Growth in LAC After the Commodity Boom; A.A GVAR Model for Commodity Prices and Output Growth; B. Results From the GVAR Model; IV. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix
Summary
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011--and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term. --Abstract
Notes
"August 2014"--Page 2 of pdf
"Western Hemisphere Department"--Page 2 of pdf
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 27-30)
Notes
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF Web site, viewed on August 18, 2014)
