Title Will natural gas prices decouple from oil prices across the pond? / Reinout De Bock and José Gijón

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011

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Description 1 online resource (22 pages) Series IMF working paper ; WP/11/143 IMF working paper ; WP/11/143. Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; Figure 1. Algerian Gas Export Volumes and Prices 2000-10; II. Global Increase in Production and Producers; Figure 2. Global Gas Production 1990-2009; III. Gas versus Oil prices in the US; A.A Loosening Link; Figure 3. US Oil and Gas Prices 1990-2010; Figure 4. US Oil and Gas Prices 1990-2010 (Energy Equivalent); B. Econometric Model; C. Spillover of Oil Price Shock on Gas Price; Figure 5. IRF of US Gas Price after an Oil Price Shock; Figure 6. Variance Decompositions of US Gas Prices D. Spillover of Gas Price Shock on Oil PriceFigure 7. IRF of US Oil Price after a Gas Price Shock; IV. The European Market from Algeria's Perspective; A. Contracted and Spot Gas Prices versus Brent Oil; Figure 8. Oil and Gas prices in Algeria 2000-10; B. Composition and Destination; Figure 10. Algeria's Natural Gas Export Markets, 2001-09; C. Cyclical Links with Gas Buyers; Figure 11. Algeria's Exports and Industrial Production of Gas Buyers, 2001-10; Figure 12 Over-contracted gas buyers in 2010; D. Econometric Analysis Figure 13. IRF of Export Volumes after a shock to Oil Price and Industrial ProductionFigure 14. IRF Algerian Gas Prices after a shock to Oil Price and Industrial Production; Figure 15. Variance Decompositions of Algeria's Gas Exports and Prices; E. Co-integrating Relationship for Gas Exports; F. Subsample Analysis; Figure 16. Accumulated IRF of Algerian Gas Exports to Oil Price and IP Shocks; Figure 17. Subsample Variance Decomposition of Algeria's Gas Exports; Figure 18. Accumulated IRF of Algerian Gas Price to Oil Price and IP Shocks; Figure 19. Subsample FEV Decomposition of gas prices Figure 9. Share and Composition of Gas ExportsV. Macroeconomic Implications under Different Scenarios; Figure 20. Algeria's economic indicators under the baseline and alternative scenarios; VI. Conclusion and Policy Implications; References; Footnotes Summary We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe's key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas exports and cyclical conditions in partner countries, we find that gas prices remain linked to oil prices, though the nexus has loosened. Both high oil prices and a modest industrial recovery in partner countries have kept gas exports at low levels in recent years, suggesting changing market forces. The paper then shows how such shifts can have important macroeconomic implications for a big gas exporter such as Algeria Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes English Subject Natural gas -- Prices -- United States -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- United States -- Econometric models Natural gas -- Prices -- Great Britain -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- Great Britain -- Econometric models Natural gas -- Prices -- Algeria -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- Algeria -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models Algeria Great Britain United States Form Electronic book Author Gijón-Spalla, José G., author. International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body. ISBN 1283563649 9781283563642 9781462388950 1462388957 1455267473 9781455267477 1455265411 9781455265411 9786613876096 6613876097

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